What we learned about the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings

Why the committee went with Alabama over Miami and why SMU may have to win the ACC to go dancing

The College Football Playoff selection committee released their last set of Tuesday rankings this week. Come Sunday, the final top 25 will be released and the bracket will be locked in. Tuesday’s projected bracket gave us a glimpse of what the actual bracket will look like on Sunday.

Oregon continued its hold on the No. 1 seed, while Texas moved up to No. 2 following Ohio State’s loss to Michigan. Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia round out the top five.

The Buckeyes fell to No. 6, staying ahead of No. 7 Tennessee, thanks in part to their two top-10 wins over Penn State and No. 9 Indiana. SMU, Indiana and Boise State came in at Nos. 8, 9 and 10, respectively.

The biggest question going into Tuesday, besides seeing how far Ohio State would fall, was which team would get that last at-large spot. Presumably, it was four teams — Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina — for one spot. With Arizona State as the highest-ranked team from the Big 12 at No. 15, the team ranked No. 12 would be displaced in the bracket for the Sun Devils.

Much to the chagrin of fans who believe there is an SEC bias, the Crimson Tide came in at No. 11, beating out No. 12 Miami for the last spot in the field. Ole Miss came in at No. 13 with the Gamecocks at No. 14.

Tide out-storm Canes for final spot

Why did the committee go with Alabama over Miami? Committee chair and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel noted records against the top 25 and records against teams with over .500.

“Alabama is 3-1 against current top 25 teams and Miami is 0-1,” Manuel told ESPN’s Rece Davis Tuesday. “Alabama is 6-1 against teams above .500 and Miami’s 4-2. Both have some losses that weren’t what they wanted out of those games. But in the last three games, Miami has lost twice.”

Some will nitpick the committee looking at the last three games because in that time, Alabama has played FCS Mercer and a 5-7 Auburn team, with those wins sandwiching a 24-3 drubbing at the hands of 6-6 Oklahoma in Norman. Miami’s last three weeks included losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse, the latter of which is now 9-3 and checked in at No. 22 in Tuesday’s rankings. The Yellow Jackets were no slouch, either, going 7-5 and taking Georgia to eight overtimes after having a two-score lead with five minutes left in Athens.

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said he was “incredibly shocked and disappointed that Miami dropped six spots to No. 12.” He added: "As we look ahead to the final rankings, we hope the committee will reconsider and put a deserving Miami in the field."

Some will argue South Carolina, one of the hottest teams in the country with a six-game winning streak, deserved that last spot. But the committee showed head-to-head was a factor in this logjam. The Gamecocks lost to both Alabama and Ole Miss, so even with a win over Clemson, South Carolina only moved up one spot because they were stuck behind the Tide and the Rebels.

Manuel also said teams that aren’t playing this week won’t move, as they won’t have an extra data point to use in evaluating them. In other words, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina can start preparing for one of the New Year’s Day bowls.

Alabama is left feeling good about their chances to make the playoffs. But there is still some chaos potentially and teams that may still be fighting for their lives, even as a top-10 team. Which brings us to…

The Pony Express heads to ACC Championship…for a must-win?

One of the best stories of his college football season has been the rise of the SMU Mustangs. By now, everyone knows the story of their football program receiving the “death penalty” in 1987 and how long it took the program to rise from the ashes. Fast forward to 2024, SMU’s first season in the ACC and they are 11-1 and set to play for the conference championship and a first-round bye in the playoffs. Standing in their way is Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers, who found their way into the title game after Miami fell at Syracuse. “Hey, Dabo Swinney, congrats,” Syracuse head coach Fran Brown said after the win. “I got you in, baby.”

At No. 17 in the playoff rankings, Clemson is obviously in a must-win scenario to reach the playoffs. At No. 8, SMU seems safe…or are they?

SMU may seem to have a buffer with Indiana and Boise State between them and No. 11 Alabama. But it this was comment from Manuel that raised some eyebrows: “Potentially, yes,” Manuel said when asked if SMU could drop below Alabama with a loss in the ACC Championship. “And they can move above teams, as well. Again, it just depends on the outcome of the game.”

By the sound of that comment, one could be led to believe if SMU gets ran off the field Saturday in Charlotte, they will fall below Alabama and out of the playoffs altogether, as Clemson would have the automatic bid. That would make some folks, especially down in Dallas, very angry, as the committee would do what they’ve said throughout the season they wouldn’t do, which is penalize a team for losing in the conference championship, an extra game that others in the playoff mix are not playing.

But if SMU does lose, they would go into Selection Sunday at 11-2. They enter play this week with the No. 75-ranked schedule, though they do rank 9th in strength of record. For the record, No. 1 Oregon’s schedule rank? 60th.

If it’s a close loss for SMU, there could be some leeway to say it was a competitive game and SMU is still deserving of an at-large, which would give the ACC two bids and knock Alabama out.

Who would have thought Alabama would be rooting hard for SMU in order to make the playoffs?

The Mountain West can still throw a wrench into the playoffs

SMU isn’t the only top-ten team that may have to win their way in this week. Let’s take a ride to Boise, Idaho and talk about the team that plays on the Smurf Turf.

No. 10 Boise State has been holding on to the No. 4 seed in the projected bracket for a few weeks now but has been hovering around the cutline for the playoffs since the first set of rankings. They now enter the Mountain West championship game, likely needing to win that game to secure a bid.

That, right there, is another flaw in the playoff system. Boise has been a top-13 team in every ranking, meaning the committee has essentially said they have been a playoff team since the beginning of November. Yet, here they are, needing to beat UNLV to go dancing.

What happens if UNLV pulls the upset and wins the Mountain West? At this point, we can assume the winner of this game will be one of the five conference champions with the automatic bid. While Army did jump back into the rankings at No. 24, a win over Tulane isn’t going to jump them ahead of No. 20 UNLV, who would score a top-10 win if they beat Boise State. The American took themselves out when Memphis, now at No. 25, upset then-No. 19 Tulane. Had Tulane won that game, the AAC would have been in play for the playoffs.

Back to UNLV. If the Rebels win, they would likely remain outside the top 12 of Sunday’s rankings. The Big 12 champion, either No. 15 Arizona State or No. 16 Iowa State, also is likely to stay outside the top 12. So that would mean not one, but two teams in the top 12 of the final rankings would be displaced in the bracket to make room for the Big 12 champion and the Mountain West. There’s even a chance you could have three teams outside the top 12 if Clemson wins. You could be looking at the No. 10 team in the final rankings, perhaps either SMU or Alabama, be displaced.

That group would also include Boise State. If Boise State loses to UNLV, they would need SMU to beat Clemson to keep an at-large spot open. They would also have to hope the committee keeps them above Alabama, but that feels unlikely. Bottom line, Boise State, a playoff team since the first set of rankings, has to win Friday.

What will the final bracket look like?

Given all this, we can say these eight teams are locks for the College Football Playoff: Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Tennessee and Indiana. One spot will be for the Mountain West champion (Boise State or UNLV), one for the ACC champion (SMU or Clemson) and one for the Big 12 champion (Arizona State or Iowa State). That’s 11 spots accounted for. That last spot looks like it will either be Alabama (if SMU wins) or SMU (if they lose to Clemson but stay above Alabama).

What about the bracket itself? You can make the argument that the Big Ten champion (Oregon or Penn State) will be the No. 1 seed. If the Ducks win, they’ll go into the playoffs at 13-0 and the only undefeated team. If the Nittany Lions win, they’d be a 12-1 Big Ten champion with a neutral-site win over the No. 1 team. That should jump them ahead of the SEC champion, whether it’s Texas or Georgia.

Oregon would almost certainly be slotted for the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinals while Penn State could also go to the Rose, given the Big Ten’s history with the game, or potentially the Peach Bowl as the closest quarterfinal bowl to State College — the four quarterfinals bowls are the Rose, Sugar, Peach and Fiesta with the Cotton and Orange hosting the semifinals.

The SEC champion would then slot in as the No. 2 seed and head to the Sugar Bowl. Georgia could go to the Peach Bowl and stay in the state, but the Sugar would also be in the play, given the longstanding history between the SEC and the Sugar Bowl.

If SMU wins the ACC, they will be the No. 3 seed. They would head to whichever bowl between the Peach and Sugar is left available. The No. 4 seed will likely play in the Fiesta Bowl.

If Boise State wins, they’ll be at least the No. 4 seed and could move up to No. 3 if SMU loses. It’s unlikely the committee would move Clemson ahead of Boise. In this scenario, Clemson may end up as the No. 12 seed, as they could remain behind the Big 12 champion, given both Arizona State and Iowa State are ahead of the Tigers.

If an upset happens in either the ACC or Mountain West, the Big 12 champion is back in play for a first-round bye. The fifth conference champion is almost a lock at this point to be the No. 12 seed.

Notre Dame and Ohio State look like they can start planning ticket sales for the first round. The Buckeyes were the No. 8 seed in Tuesday’s bracket and it’s unlikely anything would happen this weekend for them to fall below that. We could be looking at a first-round game between Ohio State and Tennessee in Columbus.

The other two first-round hosts are likely to be the runners-up in the Big Ten and the SEC. The question would be if Texas beats Georgia. Would the committee drop Georgia below Ohio State? Georgia would have three losses but they also would have a road win over the SEC champions in that scenario. Tennessee has a small chance to host if Georgia loses and falls below the Vols, but Georgia beat Tennessee by 14 on November 16. So in all likelihood, Tennessee will be the No. 9 seed and head to either Ohio State or Georgia.

The teams are all but set, this weekend will just determine seeding and where teams will play on the road to Atlanta. It’s going to be a fun weekend.