NFL is all about Risk in Crazy QB Market

Risky decisions on Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott will define whole eras of NFL franchises

No risk it, no biscuit!

That is a common phrase around NFL coaching circles and front office circles. Scouts, player personnel pros, and General Managers are all in the business of weighing evaluation versus risk. There is no more paramount decision-making process to be an example of the perils of risk than the ever-evolving Unicorn that is the franchise quarterback.

Risk is what it's about. Period.

With a good-not-great or inexperienced quarterback, Team builders must find a way to play what is essentially a terrible hand of poker… pocket jacks. They are good enough to win if you play them right, but soul-crushing if you make the slightest misstep.

They have to push all in and use the contract language the way it's announced and the structure of it to bluff out the fact that they might not have the best quarterback…. But they're willing to pay him like he is.

This preseason is just the most recent if not most-out-of-proportion example of this process.  Teams are having to make investments in what they hope will be a successful quarterback while paying him as though he were already a champion. Two quarterbacks jumped to the top of the list over the back-to-back Super Bowl champ without much fanfare. League insiders, reporters and fans alike just shrugged their shoulders, saying, “This is the quarterback market”.

For the record, no one on the list of top-ten highest-paid quarterbacks has a Super Bowl ring. The guy that comes in at #12 and soon-to-be #13 has three of them! (that is no coincidence)

Take the example of the latest pair of contracts. 

Tua Tagovailoa became the NFL's third-highest-paid player, securing a four-year, $212.4 million extension with the Miami Dolphins, which could reach $221.4 million with incentives. This contract includes $167.171 million in guarantees, with $93.171 million fully guaranteed at signing.

Not long after, Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers agreed on a four-year, $220 million extension, potentially worth $221.25 million through incentives. This deal, tying Love with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence as the NFL's highest-paid players at $55 million annually, includes $160.3 million in guarantees, with $100.8 million fully guaranteed at signing. Notably, it features a record $75 million signing bonus.

In 2024, three-time Super Bowl Champion Patrick Mahomes will make only 82% of the salary of Jordan Love, who has had exactly one season in which he threw for over 500 yards and two touchdowns. Love currently sits (tied) as the highest-played quarterback in the NFL.

That's the definition of risky business.

And it's not a complaint about Love.  He's maximized his opportunity. He has set high hopes for a franchise looking to get back to the promised land. The organization has had to provide him with weapons and protection to try to bring him along and now they must hope they've set him up for success.

Nothing is guaranteed.

Likewise, Tagovailoa has played well in the system in Miami. But currently sitting as the fourth highest-paid quarterback in the league, he has not produced playoff success.  That is despite another concerted effort to give him all the support a quarterback could ask for, including that of the top wide receiver in the league. The Dolphins just extended repaid Tyreek Hill in an effort to maximize their quarterback.  They have to hope that it pushes him to be a top-ten quarterback that he's already being paid as. That risk is significant as well.

Now comes the flex. And with Jerry Jones clearly over a barrel along with all of the Dallas Cowboys, Dak Prescott is about to become the highest-paid quarterback and one who lost to the one-season-wonder Jordan Love and his Green Bay Packers.  He will likely be able to force his way to a $60 million yearly salary and put all the risk back on his owner and franchise.

Are there alternatives to pudding your franchise in this kind of situation? Not always.

In practice, by building the foundation prior to bringing in the “quarterback of the future, General managers allow themselves the most time to evaluate the most important position on their roster before they have to make a franchise-changing decision. That evaluation time is critical and franchise-defining.

It's a large part of why the lone quarterback with multiple Super Bowl Championship wins… is not among the top ten highest-paid quarterbacks.